Playoffs Or Bust

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The final two weeks of the regular season are upon us, and now is the time to bet against teams that already have locked up playoff bids.

Indianapolis and Seattle combined for a 1-5 ATS mark in the last three weeks of last season, and back in 04, four division winners (Colts, Eagles, Packers and Falcons) combined to go 2-10 ATS in the final three weeks of the regular season. Just something to keep in mind as this year winds down.

There are a few match-ups that follow that trend this weekend, and one of them comes from East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the 7-7 Giants host the Saints. New York shot itself in the foot last Sunday, losing to Philadelphia, 36-22. The Giants now are tied for the final wild-card spot with Atlanta, although they do have a win under their belts over the Falcons. Green Bay, with its win over Minnesota, is now 7-8. Three teams stand at 6-8, so a loss to New Orleans would be devastating for New York.

The Saints clinched the NFC South after the Falcons lost to the Cowboys last week. New Orleans hosts the Panthers in its final game. If Carolina loses at Atlanta this week, then the Panthers will have nothing to play for in their game vs. New Orleans. So the Saints could still finish with 10 wins and get a first-round bye.

This game means the world to the Giants and not as much to the Saints. Making the playoffs is a little more important than fighting for homefield advantage, so Big Blue has a decided mental edge heading into the game. Sometimes thats all a team needs during the last couple of weeks of the regular season.

There are a few more games of this nature on Sunday, starting with Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Ravens have clinched the division and more than likely will be a little less intense than they have been in previous weeks.

Pittsburgh, surprising as it sounds, is still alive after winning its last three games. The Steelers are making one final push for the playoffs, and since this is a 1 p.m. Eastern Time start, they won't know if they are out of the chase until after the game. In addition, they have defeated the Ravens each of the last four years at home

Seattle takes on San Diego, and the Seahawks have yet to clinch the NFC West. The last two games have seen the team give up a combined 41 points to Arizona and San Francisco.

At first glance, trying to hold down the Chargers seems like an impossible task. SD has ridden the LT Train all season long, to the tune of 12-2. However, the Bolts pretty much have clinched a first-round bye, especially since they host Arizona for their final game. Seattle needs a win in the worst way, not only to clinch the division, but also to restore a winning attitude among last years NFC Super Bowl representative.

Finally, New England travels to Jacksonville, another team fighting for a playoff spot. The Jaguars were humbled at Tennessee last week, despite holding the Titans to only 98 yards of total offense. Tennessees defense was the story, scoring three touchdowns in the team's fifth straight win.

The Jags have to go to Kansas City for their regular season finale, so a win this week at home is a must. They have been unstoppable at ALLTELL Stadium this year, winning and covering six of their seven games and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 27-9. The Patriots do not have as much to play for since the AFC East is all but wrapped up. They are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.

To recap, go with the Giants, Steelers, Seahawks and Jaguars.

Two other contests feature major mismatches on paper, as the 10-3 Colts play the 4-10 Texans, while the 2-12 Lions host the 12-2 Bears. I recommend playing the home-town underdogs in these contests, but not as heavily as the four choices listed above.

THIS WEEKS TOP PLAY

Just like last Sunday when the Giants were 5 1/2-point favorites over the Eagles, I don't understand why the Cowboys are such heavy favorites this week over the E-A-G-L-E-S. Philly is playing as well as any team in the NFC right now and usually holds its own with Dallas. The Eagles have won eight of the last 11 match-ups, failing to cover only three of them. They are also 3-2 SU in Dallas in the last five years and one of the losses came by two points.

Take Philadelphia plus the seven and you'll have a very merry Christmas.