Playoff Position on the Line for Pack, Vikes
Football Betting Lines
12/21/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will be fighting for their playoff lives on Thursday night, when the two longtime division rivals square off at Lambeau Field.
Both the Packers and Vikings begin Week 16 at 6-8, which puts them just a game back of the 7-7 Giants and Falcons for the NFC's second Wild Card spot. The clubs are part of a five-team pack that stands at 6-8, but superior conference marks place the duo at the forefront of that group. Minnesota has a 6-4 record against NFC foes heading into Thursday night, while the Packers are 5-5 within the conference.
The franchises have arrived at their current 6-8 records by far different means.
Green Bay started the year 1-4, and has placed itself back in the postseason discussion during a 5-4 stretch that included last Sunday's 17-9 win over the Lions. The Packers, who will finish their season at NFC North champion Chicago next week, have a chance to become just the second team in NFL history to reach the playoffs despite never being above .500 during the course of the year, joining the 1990 New Orleans Saints in that exclusive category.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has endured an ugly 2-6 stretch since opening the year at a healthy 4-2. The Vikings were 26-13 home losers to the Jets last week, a game in which starting quarterback Brad Johnson was pulled late for the third time this season. Rookie Tarvaris Jackson replaced Johnson late in the going, and will receive his first NFL start in Green Bay on Thursday night.
Brad Childress' team will finish its regular season schedule at home against the St. Louis Rams next Sunday.
The Vikings, who have won in three of their last four trips to Lambeau Field, will be trying to avenge a 23-17 home loss to Green Bay on Nov. 12th.
SERIES HISTORY
Green Bay leads the all-time regular season series with Minnesota, which dates back to the 1961 season, 45-44-1. The Packers broke a deadlock in the series at the Metrodome in Week 10, when they scored the aforementioned 23-17 victory. The Vikings swept last year's home-and-home, taking a 23-20 home decision in Week 7 as well as a 20-17 affair at Lambeau Field in Week 11. The Packers swept the 2004 regular season series with their longtime division rival, winning by identical scores of 34-31 in Weeks 10 and 16.
The teams' only postseason meeting to date was the Vikings' 31-17 upset of the Packers at Lambeau Field in a 2004 NFC Wild Card game.
The Packers' Mike McCarthy has a 1-0 edge in his personal series against both the Vikings and fellow first-year head coach Childress.
VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE
Jackson won't have far to go to better the work of Johnson (2738 passing yards, 9 TD, 15 INT), who was among the NFL's least productive quarterbacks through 15 weeks. Johnson's nine touchdown passes are tied for 28th in the league and last among players than have made 12 or more starts this season, while the veteran's 71.9 passer rating ranks 26th. Before getting pulled against the Jets, Johnson was 10-of-17 for just 96 yards, with a 30-yard touchdown pass to Travis Taylor early in the first quarter accounting for his only scoring drive of the day. Taylor (51 receptions, 2 TD), who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury for Thursday, had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in what was arguably the best game of his two-year Vikings career. Former first-round draft pick Troy Williamson (36 receptions) also had a decent day, hauling in six passes for 74 yards in a losing effort. Jackson, who completed 14-of-23 passes for 177 yards with a touchdown and an interception, threw his first career TD pass to running back Mewelde Moore (41 receptions, 1 TD) in the first quarter. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins (44 receptions, 1 TD), who went without a catch against Green Bay in Week 10, comes off a three-reception day against the Jets. The Vikings offensive line has allowed 36 sacks on the year.
Pressure was a key to the Packers' Week 10 victory over the Vikings, and Green Bay figures to bring the heat on Jackson for 60 minutes on Thursday. The Pack had four sacks in the last meeting with the Vikes, with starting linebackers A.J. Hawk (3.5 sacks, 1 INT), Nick Barnett (2 sacks, 2 INT), and Brady Poppinga (1 sack, 1 INT) combining on three of those. McCarthy's team had six sacks of the Lions' Jon Kitna last Sunday, including three by tackle Cullen Jenkins (6.5 sacks) and two for top pass rusher Aaron Kampman (76 tackles, 12.5 sacks). Kampman is just one sack behind NFL leader Aaron Schobel as Week 16 begins. Starting Green Bay corners Charles Woodson (53 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack) and Al Harris (40 tackles, 3 INT) both had interceptions of Kitna, with Woodson's pick ranking as his third in four weeks. Elsewhere in the secondary, safeties Nick Collins (68 tackles, 1 INT) and Marquand Manuel (78 tackles, 1 INT) combined for six stops.
Minnesota running back Chester Taylor (1136 rushing yards, 5 TD, 38 receptions) returned to the lineup following a one-week absence last Sunday, but his 11-carry, 38-yard effort suggests that perhaps his sore ribs should have been given another week to heal. The outing marked the third time this year that Taylor had been held to fewer than 40 yards in a contest. Backup Artose Pinner (178 rushing yards, 3 TD), who had recorded a career-high 125 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions one week prior, was limited to one carry for four yards versus the Jets. Third-down man Moore (121 rushing yards) had the greatest impact of the team's running backs, catching five passes for 53 yards and scoring his first touchdown of the season. Taylor rushed 20 times for 75 yards against the Packers in Week 10, and Moore had 57 yards worth of catches.
One week after scarcely being tested by the Detroit running game, Green Bay's run-stopping unit will have to re-focus against Chester Taylor and what remains a strong run-blocking Minnesota front. The Lions rushed just 12 times against the Packers, amassing 24 yards. Jenkins (26 tackle) and fellow tackle Corey Williams (30 tackles, 3 sacks), who combined for seven tackles and four sacks last Sunday, will be looking to provide a presence in the trenches. Linebackers Barnett (95 tackles), Hawk (109 tackles), and Poppinga (55 tackles) will be seeking to make some plays behind them. Barnett posted a game-high 12 stops against the Lions last week, while Hawk was credited with 11 tackles against Minnesota in Week 10.
PACKERS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE
Packers quarterback Brett Favre (3315 passing yard, 17 TD, 15 INT) didn't get any closer to Dan Marino's career NFL passing TDs record in last week's win over the Lions, though the future Hall-of-Famer was able to secure win number 155 as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Favre was 20-of-37 for 174 yards with three interceptions in the victory, and his 413 TD strikes are still seven back of Marino's 420. As usual, wideout Donald Driver (80 receptions, 7 TD) was Green Bay's top target, catching seven passes for 70 yards in the game. No. 2 receiver Greg Jennings (44 receptions, 3 TD) was quiet with one reception for five yards, but newly-acquired third wideout Carlyle Holiday (4 receptions) made an impact with three receptions for 36 yards. Favre's 347- yard effort against the Vikings in Week 10 represents his highest passing total since 2004, and Driver's 191 receiving yards in that game established a career-best. The Packers have allowed 21 sacks on the year, including one last Sunday.
The Vikings will have to be much better against Favre than they were against Chad Pennington, who carved Minnesota up for a career-high 339 yards on 29- of-39 passing with a touchdown and a pair of turnovers. Jets wideout Laveranues Coles burned the Vikings' Cover-2 scheme for 12 catches, 144 yards, and a touchdown. Cornerbacks Antoine Winfield (83 tackles, 4 INT) and Cedric Griffin (41 tackles, 2 INT) will be locked on Driver and Jennings this week, with safeties Dwight Smith (64 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and Darren Sharper (57 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) lending support. Each member of Minnesota's starting secondary had posted an interception in the two-game span that preceded last week's loss. The Vikings' pass rush has been non-existent for most of the year, with starting ends Kenechi Udeze (24 tackles) and Darrion Scott (41 tackles, 5.5 sacks) both struggling to provide pressure.
The Packers received a solid contribution from their rushing tandem of Ahman Green (946 rushing yards, 38 receptions, 6 TD) and Vernand Morency (380 rushing yards, 2 TD, 16 receptions) in last week's win over Detroit, and will be seeking more production from the ground game this week. Green carried 22 times for 79 yards to draw ever-closer to the 1,000-yard plateau, also catching a game-high-tying seven passes totaling 44 yards. Morency, meanwhile, scored the contest's only two touchdowns, going in from distances of 14 and 21 yards and finishing the day with 54 yards to show for his nine rushes. Green was held to 55 yards on 22 totes against Minnesota last month, and has gone over 100 yards in just three of 12 career meetings against the Vikes. Morency was inactive in the first Minnesota game.
Though the Vikings' season doesn't figure to end up as a particularly memorable one, Minnesota will likely etch its name in the NFL record book nonetheless. The Vikings have allowed just 771 rushing yards all year, an average of 55.1 per game, and would have to surrender a total of 200 ground yards over their final two contests to avoid breaking the 16-game record of 970, established by the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. No opposing player has amassed more than 78 ground yards against Minnesota, a figure that Buffalo's Willis McGahee managed on 28 carries back in Week 4. Defensive tackles Pat Williams (38 tackles, 1 sack) and Kevin Williams (29 tackles, 5 sacks) have been at the heart of the stifling scheme, with linebackers E.J. Henderson (96 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT), Napoleon Harris (48 tackles, 3 INT, 2.5 sacks), and Ben Leber (36 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) making plays behind them. Pat Williams had five tackles against the Jets, Henderson posted a game-high 13 tackles, and Harris notched a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception off of Chad Pennington.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The "these teams are heading in different directions" line of thinking is problematic in the NFL, where clubs seemingly alter or reverse their course on a week-to-week basis. Another theory that would seem to favor Green Bay, in regard to their advantage at storied Lambeau Field, also fails to hold much weight, since the Pack is 2-5 in their home building this year. What does make sense is to put your confidence in Brett Favre when he faces a team that a) doesn't rush the passer well b) has given up huge passing days to more than one quarterback this season and c) lacks the offensive punch to consistently answer any of Green Bay's potential big plays. The Packers aren't going to run away and hide against a Vikings team that has a slight talent advantage to Green Bay, but they'll do enough to give themselves a chance heading into Week 17.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Packers 21, Vikings 17
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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
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